The Betting Advantage

GETTING VALUE

admin — Wed, 16 May 2012 16:03:46 +0000

I just got a comment/question from Sean that is good to address to understand the concept of getting value on bets, which is the most important part of betting.

“I liked your post, was there a reason that you pick Hanson in the first place? did you genuinely think he would win or did you just expect a shift in his odds later in the tournament.
Regards
Sean”

The odds have created an implied probability. In the case of the post Sean was looking at the bet was at odds of 23.0. Therefore if the tournament were to be played 23 times I felt Peter Hanson would win at least once. The implied odds were 1/23 = 4.35%. Again to make this bet I felt Peter Hanson had better than 4.35% chance of winning the tournament. When actual probability is higher than implied probability you have value. The big issue is finding the actual probability. If you continue to get value and keep a bankroll you will come out on top over a long period.

The issue then becomes how much to bet. This post shows the Kelly formula.

When trading I will risk more than what Kelly would call for because I am planning on trading out of it. Trading would work slightly different in terms of getting value. For the example that Sean commented about I layed off Hanson at 7.6. The actual odds I got were 23/7.6 = 3.02. I risked $50 to win roughly $100 ($111 on Hanson because I didn’t trade the full amount to make all players the same winning) so the math checks out. Therefore, if the actual probably was more than 1/3.02 = 33.1% then I got value on this trade. If you are planning on trading and know entry and exit points, along with a good estimate at actual probability then Kelly can work. Generally you have to be quick when trading so getting value and being able to estimate Kelly quickly in your head is a good strategy.

NHL PLAYOFFS

admin — Sun, 08 Apr 2012 06:12:58 +0000

Looking at the odds for the Stanley Cup winner I really like what St. Louis has shown in the second half this season. Anything above 11.0 is good value here, which can easily be had. A good goal-tending duo can be tough to beat and the Blues have it. If the Blues have the best goalie tandem, then Vancouver has to be second. However, the Canucks are the second or third favorite with odds around 5.5-7 which is pretty short. Maybe there is some value at 7.

My value picks are:

St. Louis 12.0 (Paddy Power)

Detroit 13.5 (Betfair)

Washington 41.0 (Paddy Power)

Not a single comment was given for the Keychain Giveaway so I’ve decided to give the prizes to subscribers.

KEYCHAIN GIVEAWAY

admin — Thu, 29 Mar 2012 03:44:04 +0000

Wholesale Keychain has contacted me to giveaway two keychains from their wide selection. They carry almost every keychain that you can think of. Since this website is sports oriented I have selected the two keychains below to giveaway. I’m sure that we can arrange an exchange if desired.

New York Yankees Keychain with Bottle Opener

I like blue the most in this keychain although the silver one isn’t bad. Good discounts available on this one for large orders.

Denver Broncos Football Shaped Keychain

There is a good selection of NFL team Keychains. The football shaped one is my favorite.

To be entered in the giveaway just submit a comment.

Draw Date: April 4th

NBA PICK MARCH 12

admin — Mon, 12 Mar 2012 15:14:10 +0000

So far I am -2.09 points with my NBA picks on here.

Tonight I’m going with New Jersey 2.40

NBA PICKS FEB. 23

admin — Thu, 23 Feb 2012 22:47:50 +0000

I am now -4.03 since I started giving NBA picks on here.

Today’s picks:

Orlando @ Atlanta Under 177.5 (1.98)

Miami -9.5 (1.96)

NBA PICKS FEB. 9

admin — Thu, 09 Feb 2012 19:57:03 +0000

I am now -4.90 after Golden State blew a lead in the 4th quarter Wednesday.

Tonight I’m going with:

Houston @ Phoenix Under 199.5 (1.87)

NBA PICK FEB. 7

admin — Tue, 07 Feb 2012 19:45:54 +0000

After a winner last night my NBA picks are -3.90

One pick for tonight:

Golden State Warriors 2.28

NBA PICKS FEB. 6

admin — Mon, 06 Feb 2012 20:46:22 +0000

NBA pick for tonight:

San Antonio Spurs 1.96

NBA picks are -4.86.

NBA PICKS JAN 30

admin — Mon, 30 Jan 2012 21:37:12 +0000

I was talking to a friend last week about betting on games that the players are virtually meaningless. He said that he does not bet on these games. Two of theses games occurred yesterday with the NHL All-Star Game and the Pro Bowl. I didn’t bet on the NHL All-Star Game but did place multiple bets on the Pro Bowl. I went with the AFC as the long shot is usually the best route in these types of games. The Over seemed too good to be true. The line was set at 72.5 and I also bet on the alternate total at 82.5. Both bets were value in my opinion, even with the over 72.5 at 1.73.

My NBA picks are -3.86 so far.

Tonight’s pick:

Houston Rockets -7.5 (2.14)

NBA PICKS JAN 27

admin — Fri, 27 Jan 2012 21:10:41 +0000

I’m down to -4.50 points with my picks on here.

Tonight I’m going with:

Indiana Packers -3.5 (2.02)

New Orleans Hornets (2.64)