THE STREAK ENDS
Three long streaks end in week 15 of this NFL season. The Packers lost, dropping their record to 13-1. The most suprising thing was that the loss was to the injury riddled Kansas City Cheifs. The Colts ended their threat of going 0-16 by beating the Tennessee Titans. Finally Tim Tebow and the Denver Broncos didn’t provide some magical comeback in the 4th quarter.
Another solid week with my NFL picks. I finally jumped on the bandwagon for the Packers to cover a big spread and it obviously didn’t work out well.
Moneyline Picks
Seattle Seahawks (2.80)
Spread Picks
Green Bay Packers -13.5 (1.96)
Seattle Seahawks +3.5 (2.00)
Washington Redskins +7.0 (1.87)
Total Picks
Seattle Seahawks/ Chicago Bears Under 35.5 (1.98)
Washington Redskins/ New York Giants Over 46.5 (2.00)
New England Patriots/ Denver Broncos Over 46 (2.00)
Baltimore Ravens/ San Diego Chargers Over 46 (2.00)
Cassini’s XX Draws continue to struggle because of a late goal on his only pick. This week Cassini has some mid-week draw picks.
THE PACK TO PERFECTION
Lots of news going around the NFL yesterday and today. Kansas City Head Coach Todd Haley and Miami Dolphins Head Coach Tony Sparano were both fired yesterday. It was no secret that Sparano was going to get fired at the end of the season, but doing it now gives the Dolphins to get a head start on looking for a new coach. Miami had to wait to lose a game before they could give Sparano the axe.
Today it was announced that Pittsburgh Steeler James Harrison will be suspended one game.
Greg Jennings will likely miss the end of the regular season for the Green Bay Packers, but it appears that there isn’t any stopping this team. Offensively they are very comparable to the St. Louis Rams of the late 90’s/early 2000’s. They get into four receiver sets and get matchups with speedy receivers against safeties.
Week 14 was a successful one in terms of my selections. One of my fantasy teams went down to defeat as I was facing off against a hot Jacksonville defence.
New Orleans Saints -3.5 (1.99)
New York Giants/ Dallas Cowboys Over 49 (2.04)
My NHL picks continue to struggle. I think I’m running into some bad luck. I see good opportunity in taking the over in the Edmonton Oiler games. They seem like a completely different team than the first of the season. They are now playing a much more open game, compared to the tight defensive game they started the season with.
Soccer picks continue to fire blanks.
Pete Nordsted’s Drawmaster: 0/3
Cassini’s XX Draws: 0/3
Very interesting interview with former Betfair Education Employee Scott Fergusion at Centre Court Trading.
RUNNING COLD
It almost feels like nothing can go my way lately in terms of sports betting. Normally I am solid with my NHL and NFL picks, but lately has been a different story.
Spread Picks
Cincinnati Bengals +6.5 (2.04)
Tampa Bay Bucaneers -3 (1.95)
Green Bay Packers -6.5 (2.00)
St. Louis Rams +13.5 (1.94)
New Orleans Saints -9.5 (2.08)
Total Picks
Denver Broncos/ Minnesota Vikings Under 37.5 (2.00)
Kansas City Chiefs/ Chicago Bears Under 37.5 (2.02)
Green Bay Packers/ New York Giants Over 52.5 (1.99)
Detroit Lions/ New Orleans Saints Over 54.5 (2.06)
San Diego Chargers/ Jacksonville Jaguars Under 39.5 (1.91)
Week 13 was a weak performance which makes me question how much of a grasp I have on the NFL right now. Looking at the above selections (that I submit to Premier Betting) I don’t regret making any of them with the exception of the Tampa Bay -3. I submit my picks on Friday and Sunday it was announced that Josh Johnson would be starting at QB instead of Josh Freeman.
Currently the Monday night game is in the fourth quarter. I’ve had my ups and downs in this game. I layed the Chargers after their opening touchdown and did trade out for a profit after the Jaguars had their first score. I figured it was a good opportunity to back the Jaguars near the end of the 2nd quarter and two late Charger touchdowns burned me.
This image makes it look tame, but it was anything but.
Lack of soccer draws have added to my betting fustrations. It was an 0-fer weekend.
Cassini’s XX Draws: 0/5
Pete Nordsted’s Drawmaster: 0/3
Luckily the stock market is doing much better than sports betting is for me.
TIME TO BELIEVE IN TEBOW?
I haven’t really posted much on here in the past while but I’m going to make an attempt to get back to it. This time I think I will post once per week, on Tuesdays until the end of the NFL regular season. After that I may try something different. Posts will recap what I did in terms of betting, meaning anything from bets I placed to articles I’ve read that are of some interest.
The primary focus for me for the past months has been the NFL. It is the only thing that I am trading on currently as I am patiently waiting for the NBA to start their season. Though I would prefer to trade on Betdaq for fewer commissions then Betfair, Betdaq doesn’t provide the amount of markets for a single game that Betfair does. Last night I dabbled a bit into trading the over/under markets in the NFL Monday nighter.
I also made a good profit on the Under/Over 50.5 points.
The trading strategy was that I felt that this game was going to be a high scoring one, especially after it started. The first quarter finished without any scoring but both teams were moving the ball efficiently. The Saints tried a fake field goal that didn’t go as planned and Eli Manning threw a red zone interception after promtly driving down the field. I entered the market by getting part of my bet matched, laying odds of 1.15, with the score 7-3 for the Saints in the second quarter.
I didn’t lock in the profit until the fourth quarter. I kept bets out there that were value for the under, but the odds that I was giving were far above what anyone was willing to give until that point.
The rest of the NFL weekend worked out average at best.
I supply NFL selections for the Premier Betting site. This week I went three-for-six with a very small profit because one of the winning selections was an underdog moneyline pick. I really should have went with Denver on the moneyline too. I’m trying to trust Tim Tebow, but he still scares me. Below are were my selections.
Moneyline Picks
Arizona Cardinals (2.25)
Spread Picks
Tampa Bay Bucaneers+3.5 (1.96)
Denver Broncos +6.5 (1.96)
Total Picks
Buffalo Bills/ New York Jets Under 42.5 (2.00)
New England Patriots/ Philadelphia Eagles Under 50.5 (1.91)
New York Giants/ New Orleans Saints Over 51.5 (2.05)
The Tampa Bay game was a bit of a heartbreaker, but those things happen.
As you can see I really liked the Giants, Saints game. This New Orleans offence is very high powered, especially at home. It looks like the Detroit Lions are in trouble again this week. The Lions started 5-0, but now are dealing with one of the toughest second half schedules amoungst NFL teams. It has just been announced that Detroit Defensive Tackle Ndamukong Suh will be suspended for two games.
Other NFL news out today has Jack Del Rio being fired as head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars (3-8).
Recently I have tried to dabble into soccer. For the NHL I have betting systems, one of which is a system to determine probability of a Regulation Tie. I know very little when it comes to soccer but I do subscribe to a pair of selection services which pick soccer draws, comparable to what I would do with the NHL. Below are this weekend’s results.
Pete Nordsted’s Drawmaster: 2/3
Cassini’s XX Draws: 0/2
BACK IN PLAY
After an excruciating 149-day lockout the NBA players and owners have reached a tentative deal that will enable the start of the 2011-12 NBA season. It’s hard to understand why Billionaires and Millionaires could have such a hard time dividing up millions of dollars but it happens. A cancellation of the whole season would have been catastrophic.
The NBA will start up on Christmas day, giving time for teams to get ready with the normal exhibition season and player transactions. It will be an abbreviated season (66 games), but things could have been a lot worse.
BETDAQ’S OPPORTUNITY
As of Monday Betfair has implemented their additions to the premium charge in which some customers will pay up to 60%. I haven’t done much comparing between Betfair and Betdaq but I did notice that there was almost twice as much money matched on Betdaq for the British Open on the weekend. Perhaps this could be a changing of the guard as Betfair has been minipulating its customers to maximize profits. Time will tell what will happen.
I came across a really good read concerning a Betfair trader on Green All Over.
2011 MOCK DRAFT
My favorite sport to bet on is American Football. You can see how I did betting straight up on the NFL last season on sporting markets. I am so caught up in the NFL that I usually end up spending 10+ hours per week watching the NFL network when it is the off season. From the combine to labour talks it is not too exciting for the most part.
The best time during the off season for me is the draft. I like sorting through the talent and deciding which picks are promising, which are busts and who my Lions end up with. I have to admit I was wrong with Matt Ryan, but I think a lot depends on the situation these young players are going to, especially the quarterbacks. The 2011 draft may see for the first time eight quarterbacks going in the first three rounds. The need for quarterbacks is high, which is quite different compared to past drafts where we have seen some quarterbacks slide, some with good reason Matt Leinhart.
Here is the draft how I see it (excluding trades).
1. Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton | QB | Auburn
2. Denver Broncos
Marcell Dareus | DL | Alabama
3. Buffalo Bills
Von Miller | DE | Texas A&M
4. Cincinnati Bengals
A.J. Green | WR | Georgia
5. Arizona Cardinals
Blaine Gabbert | QB | Missouri
Many have Patrick Peterson here, but the need for a QB is just too great in Arizona.
6. Cleveland Browns
Robert Quinn | DE | North Carolina
7. San Francisco 49ers
Patrick Peterson | CB | LSU
8. Tennessee Titans
Nick Fairley | DT | Auburn
9. Dallas Cowboys
Tyron Smith | OT | USC
10. Washington Redskins
Julio Jones | WR | Alabama
11. Houston Texans
Aldon Smith | OLB | Missouri
12. Minnesota Vikings
QB Jake Locker | QB | Washington
13. Detroit Lions
Prince Amukamara | CB | Nebraska
I hope Prince slides to 13 and Lions didn’t play themselves out of this pick by picking up some wins down the stretch. A corner is their strongest need, if not Amukamara it will likely be an Offensive Lineman.
14. St. Louis Rams
Corey Liuget | DT | Illinois
15. Miami Dolphins
Mike Pouncey| OL | Florida
16. Jacksonville Jaguars
J.J. Watt | DE | Wisconsin
17. New England Patriots (from Oakland)
Anthony Castonzo | OLT | Boston College
18. San Diego Chargers
Cameron Jordan | DL | California
19. New York Giants
Gabe Carimi | OL | Wisconsin
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Ryan Kerrigan | DE | Purdue
21. Kansas City Chiefs
Akeem Ayers | LB | UCLA
22. Indianapolis Colts
Jimmy Smith | CB | Colorado
23. Philadelphia Eagles
Nate Solder | OT | Colorado
24. New Orleans Saints
Muhammad Wilkerson | DE | Temple
25. Seattle Seahawks
Marvin Austin | DL | North Carolina
26. Baltimore Ravens
Cam Heyward | DT | Ohio State
27. Atlanta Falcons
Adrian Clayborn | DE | Iowa
28. New England Patriots
Mark Ingram | RB | Alabama
29. Chicago Bears
Derek Sherrod | OL | Mississippi St.
Bears have the worst Offensive Line in the NFL.
30. New York Jets
Phil Taylor | DL | Baylor
31. Pittsburgh Steelers
Aaron Williams | CB | Texas
32. Green Bay Packers
Justin Houston | OLB | Georgia
I think some teams with a quarterback need will be patient but it will be interesting to see if some hit the panic button if some QB’s come off the board.
LONDON CALLING
Not my best trading effort this afternoon. Tomorrow is a new day, with the same two teams playing.
WHAT CAN WE TAKE FROM THE FIRST HALF?
Before my Betfair days I spent my time trying to get an advantage over Sportsbooks. At that time sports betting was a hobby, rather than a profession. I would develop systems to try to get value bets in baseball, hockey and basketball. The hours that I spent going through lines and odds has without a doubt is helping me now as I trade on Betfair.
When I first came across sportsbooks offering second half lines I figured that these were bets I could get value with. The part of the spreadsheet you see above is one that I developed and modified and modified to try to gain an advantage on second half lines. I first developed the formulas and was entering the information I needed at halftime. Using some web queries, Visual Basic and some help from former classmates I developed a spreadsheet in which I can just enter the box score URL on the first sheet and hit the refresh on the second sheet to give me a projected final score.
I have hidden most of the sheet as I wouldn’t want someone to copy my ideas. Nor do I want to sell it, I have let a friend use it and he has shown some very good results with it on Betfair.
This is a good time of the season to start using the spreasheet because teams have established good season stats at this point.
I still use the spreadsheet for betting second half lines, mostly with matchbook, with good success. It is fairly consistent with a ROI just above 15%. I have gotten into using it with Betfair, so far, so good. I’m keeping my fingers crossed.
SUPERBOWL XLV
Here we go, two weeks to talk about the biggest NFL game of the season.
Lines have opened with the Packers being the favorite, between 2 and 3 points. I suggest taking the Steelers +3 if you can get it at good odds. We are use to seeing a large spread in the Super Bowl, which isn’t the case this year. If you want to read into the numbers, seven of the past nine Super Bowls seen the underdog cover or win outright.